• ADP employment change 235k vs 202k exp
  • Prior reading revised lower to 110k vs 135k previously
  • USDJPY moves back above 114

The ADP employment report has seen a stronger than expected reading, with 235k US jobs added during the month of October. The reading is a nice beat on the 202k expected and a solid improvement on the prior reading. Last month’s data was negatively impacted by the hurricanes and the initial reading of 135k has been subsequently revised down to 110k. 

link do file download link

 The ADP rose to 235k in October compared to 110k in September. Source: xStation

This downwards revision has taken some of the shine off the beat in the headline, with 25k fewer jobs created in September meaning that the beat of 33k in October is not so impressive. The ADP is often seen as a leading indicator of Friday’s NFP report and as such today’s number could be seen as supportive of a good reading in Friday’s more-widely viewed US employment indicator. 

link do file download link

 USDJPY is retesting a potentially key level around 114.40 once more after the release. Source: xStation 

The release has provided some upside to the USDJPY, with the pair moving back near its recent highs after recapturing the 114 handle. The cross is once more approaching a potentially key level around 114.40 with the market recently respecting this price zone as resistance. A failure here once more would further confirm the possible triple top formation but a clean break above may see a sustained move to the upside. 

Looking ahead there’s the ISM manufacturing PMI due out at 2PM before the Fed rate decision at 6PM. Given the potential impact that these could have on the US dollar, there is a fair chance that we see the USDJPY either reject or break the key 114.40 level before the day is out.