Aussie dollar moves back lower

The AUDUSD (-0.72%) has fallen to its lowest level of the day in recent trade as the market appears to be coming under pressure once more. There has been a series of descending peaks over the past few weeks, and Tuesday’s high could have made another lower high. 

The 8 and 21 period EMAs have made a bearish cross on H1 which could be indicative of another move lower. The 0.7495 level has been a key swing area on longer term timeframes and if price closes below here this evening then more downside could lay ahead. 0.7440 is a recent swing low, but doesn’t hold much weight as a previous swing level and further declines could lay ahead.

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 There are three economic events today which could impact this pair with the ADP release at 1:15pm setting the ball rolling. This is seen as a possible pre cursor to Friday’s NFP and has previously shown a fairly good level of correlation to NFPs. At 3pm the ISM non-manufacturing PMI is expected to rise to 56.1 from 55.2 to previously before we have the Fed rate decision at 7pm. A very low probability of a move in the Fed funds rate has been assigned to this event in the market but that doesn’t mean it will necessarily be a non-event. The accompanying statement will likely hold the key as traders look for any alterations to the previous release and attempt to decipher any change in the chances of a June rate hike.