- Bitcoin has smashed through the 3000 level to hit a record high
- The US30 has also moved above its previous peak to extend its run of record making highs to 9
- Oil prices decline as OPEC and non-OPEC meet in Abu Dhabi
- Latest positioning data could favour gains in the USD and JPY
Bitcoin is on the mouth of nearly anyone on the market these days. With equity indices highs but stuck in tight ranges and prices of many commodities subdued, another giant rally in Bitcoin price is turning investors heads. The cryptocurrency has now rallied more than 75% in just 3 weeks.
This surge in the value of Bitcoin could be a positive sign for stocks. Of the 18 previous instances when bitcoin returned gains in excess of 30% in a month, the S&P500 (US500) was higher two months later no fewer than 15 times. If the look-ahead period is extended to three months then there has only been a solitary occasion when a 30+% rise in bitcoin hasn’t preceded gains for the stock market.
US stock markets have made further gains today, with the US30 posting a record high for the 9th day in a row. The market has now made no fewer than 50 record closing highs since the US election with bulls seemingly unperturbed about the state of political gridlock in Washington.
As far as commodities are concerned, WTI oil prices are hovering around $49 per barrel and could form a triangle formation on a daily interval. What could be worth underlining volume does not suggest a change of an ongoing trend and remains at relatively low levels which might indicate that a current range-trading is going to last yet for a while.
Both Gold and Silver sold off last Friday after the release of an all round solid NFP report and in closing lower on the week ended a sequence of three successive weekly gains. We noted some possible reversal signals in Silver prior to the US employment report and the number itself provided the catalyst for a sizable decline.
In the FX space there has been the release of the latest CFTC positioning data which reveals some interesting situations for some currencies. The US dollar net positioning has already slipped into the negative territory for the first time since the greenback began its rally in mid-2014 and the Canadian dollar has seen longs reach the highest point since January 2013.