• Debut of Canadian ADP employment change at -5.7k
  • Manufacturing sales m/m: +0.5% vs -0.4% exp 
  • CAD one of the best performers in G10

 Today marks the first ever ADP release from Canada with the debut reading coming in at -5.7k. The company has produced private payrolls figures for the US for quite some time now, but this is the first time that a Canadian number has been released.

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 The ADP reading declined in October. Even though this is the 1st public release the ADP have back-filled previous data to give some perspective. Source: ADP Research Institute

Therefore the market reaction is still unclear. It is also worth pointing out that the data relates to October and given that we’ve already had the government figures for Canada relating to last month which showed a strong rise (35.3k vs 15.3k exp and 10.0k prior).

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 The Canadian dollar is edging higher and making gains against most of its peers. Source: xStation

 The ADP number was released just after 1:45 with the figure delayed. The USDCAD was already lower following the 1:30 release of initial jobless claims which saw the USD drop and also thanks to a better than expected Canadian manufacturing sales number. There was a small increase after ADP miss but the market remains not far off its lowest levels of the day. The manufacturing sales M/M reading showed a 0.5% increase compared to an expected drop of 0.4% and even though the prior reading was revised lower to 1.4% from 1.6% previously it is slightly positive for CAD. 

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 The USDCAD pair has fallen to its lowest level of the day following the releases. SourcE: xStation

The USDCAD has retested a rising trendline from the early September lows and is now sitting at a potentially key level. Price has also fallen back below prior resistance at 1.2775 in the past couple of weeks and price is now at the apex of the rising trendline and this resistance. A break either way out from here could be seen as a signal that the market will extend in that direction going forward.  

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 The USDCAD on D1 is sitting at a potentially key level between a rising trendline and a prior resistance level. Source: xStation