• The Canadian dollar is making steady gains today
  • Housing starts for October rise to 223k
  • Building permits rise by 3.8% in September

Two Canadian data-points on the housing market have just been released with both the housing starts and building permits improving on their prior numbers. Housing starts in October came in at 223k, comfortably beating the 211k consensus forecast whilst the prior reading was revised higher to 219k from 217k previously.  

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 The Canadian dollar is making fairly steady gains today with the largest rise coming against the pound. Source: xStation

Shortly after the housing starts number the latest building permits figures were announced with a rise of 3.8%  m/m strong compared to a forecast rise of 0.7% m/m. Here there was also an upwards revision to the previous release, which now stands at -5.1% m/m against -5.5% previously. This data relates to the month of September and is therefore more than 35 days old. Nonetheless it garners a little more attention typically, compared to the housing starts. 

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 A fall below 1.2700 could lead to a trend change for the USDCAD with the market currently sat between EMAs. Source: xStation

 The USDCAD has fallen back lower today and the market is approaching the weekly lows at 1.2700. Furthermore there are some signs which could be seen to suggest that the uptrend seen during September and October is under threat with price now sat in between the 8 and 21 period EMA on D1. Throughout the majority of the move higher the market was above both of these moving averages with the 8 residing above the 21 in what can be seen as indicative of an uptrend. Should price fall below the 1.2700 handle then it would also drop below the 21 EMA and this could be followed not long after with a bearish cross (8 EMA moving below 21 EMA). This could then be seen as indicative of a downtrend and we may then see a drop back towards the 2017 lows around 1.2100.