• Chicago PMI rises to 66.2 vs 60.2 expected – highest since Mar 2011
  • CB consumer confidence also beats forecast – best reading since Dec 2000
  • Gold attempts to break lower and dips below $1270

On a big week of data from the US, the world’s largest economy has gotten off to a good start with both the Chicago PMI and the Conference Board consumer confidence coming in better than forecast. The Chicago PMI rose to its highest level since March 2011 in October and a reading of 66.2 against consensus forecasts of 60.2 and a prior reading of 65.2 is clearly strong. The Chicago number itself isn’t often that market moving but the ISM manufacturing equivalent (due out tomorrow) is and the high degree of correlation between them suggests we could be set for a strong reading on Wednesday afternoon.

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 The Chicago PMI in October rose to its highest level since 2011. This could bode well for tomorrow’s ISM manufacturing release. Source: XTB Macrobond

 As well as the data amongst industry being strong in the US, consumer confidence is also high as shown by the Conference Board release. This metric rose to its highest level since December 2000 in coming in at 125.9 which is above both the expected 121.1 and also included an upwards revision to the prior reading which is now 120.6. 

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 Consumer confidence continues to rise with the conference board reading moving to its highest level since 2000. Source: XTB Macrobond

The US dollar is making small and steady gains on the day but the larger movements can be seen in t precious metals. Silver (-0.87%) has dropped to its lowest level of the week in the last hour while Gold is trading back close to a potentially key support around 1260. 

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 Gold is under pressure once more with the market testing key support around the 200 day SMA. Source: xStation