• UK preliminary GDP print to take the stage in the morning

  • Will ECB minutes show more hawkish attitude just like its Fed counterpart?

  • Government report expected to show fourth weekly oil inventory build

After a vast array of macro releases yesterday Thursday calendar looks interesting as well. First, German Ifo Climate reading and the UK GDP print will provide insight into European economies. Later on ECB is going to release its protocol from the latest meeting. In the afternoon data concerning Canadian retail sales will take the stage as well as weekly US government report on the crude oil stocks.

9:00 am BST – Germany, Ifo Business Climate for February. An index measuring business climate in Germany based on the survey of manufacturers, builders, wholesalers and retailers. Taking a look at the past readings we can see that the climate in Germany is solid. Moreover, the last month’s reading of 117.6 pts is the highest in history. This time market consensus points for a little deterioration to 117 pts.

9:30 am BST – UK, GDP for Q4. The second preliminary reading of UK GDP for the Q4. The first one that was published on 26th of January surprised investors a little to the upside coming out at 1.5% YoY against 1.4% YoY expected. However, this is still a slowdown as Q4 reading shown a value if 1.7%. Economist surveyed by Bloomberg expect that today’s print will be in line with the prior one and will show the value of 1.5%.

12:30 pm BST – ECB Minutes. After Fed minutes have shown a more hawkish attitude of the central bankers yesterday investors’ attention will be now on the ECB counterpart. The protocol from the December meeting hinted more hawkish attitude of some ECB members yet during the press conference following January’s meeting President Mario Draghi cooled investors’ heads somewhat. Today’s release will show if the moods among European central bankers are actually more hike-oriented.

1:30 pm BST – Canada, Retail Sales for December. A semi-important reading from the Canadian economy. December is generally a good month for retailers due to the Christmas period. However, market consensus points for a reading of 0% MoM against 0.2% MoM seen in November. The core reading is expect to show an increase of 0.3% MoM against 1.6% seen last time.

4:00 pm BST – US Crude Oil Stocks. Weekly government report on the US crude oil inventories. Yesterday’s API report hinted an decrease of 0.9M while the consensus expected 1.3M increase. Today’s report is expected to show an increase of 2.354M what would mark the fourth week of inventory build.

Central bank speakers scheduled for today:

3:00 pm BST – Fed’s Dudley

5:10 pm BST – Fed’s Bostic

8:30 pm BST – Fed’s Kaplan

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Yesterday’s Fed minutes provided boost for the USD. Will today’s ECB release help EUR find solid ground? Source: xStation5