- US dollar awaits the crucial NFP report due at 1.30 pm BST
- We also get a similar report from Canadian economy
- Batch of central bank speakers on the agenda
The NFP report is the key event today. The publication may decide if the current USD rebound is to continue. Moreover, there will be a publication of labour data from Canada as well. CAD has lost some of its previous bullish momentum and the reading may decide whether a further tightening of BoC monetary policy is needed. One should also pay attention to speeches of central bankers.
1:30 pm BST – US NFP report for September. The NFP is traditionally the most anticipated monthly report from the US economy as healthy employment gains are a sign of a strong economy and when coupled with rising wages could spell higher inflation. This is of interest for the Fed that is preparing the markets for the third interest rate hike this year – markets are pricing such move in December at over 70%. Consensus calls for a rise in non-farm employment of 80k, while wages are seen at +2.5% yoy. We presented a broader NFP preview here.
1:30 pm BST – Canadian labour data for September. The Canadian dollar has lost some of its bullish momentum since the BoC second rate hike this year. However, investors see chances for another rate increase in December at shy of 65%. the expectations relatively high, so there is a risk that if the job report surprise to the downside, markets may change their mind and CAD could suffer. Moreover, the structure of employment will also matter. The unemployment rate is expected to inch up from 6.2% to 6.3%, whilst employment should grow by 14.5k (+22.2k prior).
6:00 pm BST – US oil rigs count. The downward trend in terms of US oil rigs count was interrupted last week, so investors will await this data as it may confirm if US producers are to expand their activity.
Central bank speakers – we have a lot of speeches scheduled for today mainly from FED and ECB. Let us come forth with the full tally of them:
- 1:00 pm BST – BoE’s Haldane
- 2:15 pm BST – Fed’s Bostic
- 5:15 pm BST – Fed’s Dudley
- 5:45 pm BST – Fed’s Kaplan
- 6:00 pm BST – Fed’s Bullard
USDCAD broke above 23.6% Fibo retracement and the pair may aim at 1.2775 (local high from August) if the current bullish momentum is to sustain. Source: xStation5