- EMU inflation in the spotlight before noon, the euro at risk as German CPI missed expectations
- Canadian GDP one of the most important releases for the CAD this week
- NZ labor market report might leave the kiwi exposed once again
Tuesday is packed with many relevant releases where those for the commodity-related currencies might prove to be the most crucial. We’ll get the monthly GDP print from Canada while the BoC’s head Poloz is expected to speak as well. Besides, the NZ dollar will be equipped with another significant data as the jobs report will be released tonight. When it comes to the EURUSD, EMU inflation and Chicago PMI should be in the limelight.
10:00 am BST – EMU inflation: Mario Draghi admitted last week that the so-called self-sustaining inflation had yet to be seen and it was the reason (among others) why the QE program was prolonged by another 9 months. Hence when the Governing Council is convinced that inflation is able to remain at acceptable levels without monetary stimulus then the time to consider a more hawkish rhetoric could come. Meanwhile, the German report yesterday showed that price growth slowed down more than estimated which could be a short-term drag on the single currency. Notice that expectations were already a bit lower compared to the prior month due to an adverse base effect, so the release could have been yet more disappointing. The consensus today points to 1.5% yoy in terms of the headline and 1.1% yoy as to the core gauge.
12:30 pm BST – Canadian GDP: CAD traders are the busy week as we’ll know several pivotal readings for the Canadian economy. We begin with the monthly GDP print which is expected to show 0.1% mom and 3.6% yoy in August. Keep in mind that the Canadian economy reported the highest growth in the second quarter among the G7 economies, hence in order to sustain the excellent performance another solid print is needed. Looking forward, the CAD will get manufacturing PMI on Wednesday and the jobs report on Friday.
1:45 pm BST – Chicago PMI, 2:00 pm BST – consumer confidence by Conference Board: The two soft indicators are the sole ones during today’s session for the US dollar. Bear in mind that we got the stellar reading when it comes to the University of Michigan gauge so one could expect that Conference Board may confirm it. In turn Chicago PMI is a good proxy for manufacturing ISM for the whole economy which will be released tomorrow.
9:45 pm BST – NZ jobs report: The New Zealand dollar has been on the back foot of late predominantly due to political concerns which emerged following the unexpected fallout of the parliamentary election. Subsequently, dovish comments concerning a potential RBNZ reform have seen the NZD yet lower, hence today’s report could alleviate downside risks a bit should the report meets or beats forecasts. The unemployment rate is forecast to tick down from 4.8% to 4.7%, an employment change is anticipated at 2.5% yoy against 3.1% yoy seen in the prior month while the participation rate should move up from 70% to 70.2%. All data is for the third quarter.
Central bank speakers:
- 9:15 am BST – ECB’s Visco
- 7:30 pm BST – BoC’s Poloz