• Canadian inflation report seems to be the most important point to watch today
  • Some central bank speakers (notably from the FED) on the calendar as well
  • Oil rigs count release could influence the commodity price at the end of the week

In early trading the Canadian dollar is among those currencies which are losing the least against the US dollar (the best performer at the time of writing). However, everything may change this afternoon when the Canada’s inflation report is released. On top of that, there will be some speeches of central bankers, the Riksbank minutes and the weekly update regarding a change in active oil rigs in the US.

8:30 pm BST – Riksbank minutes: The account of the last meeting might offer some clues with regard to the next move in rates (notice the bank is forecast to pull the trigger during the second half of the year). However, since the last meeting we got a bit disappointing inflation release (though it could have been just one-off decrease) and therefore today’s minutes should be taken with a grain of salt.

1:30 pm BST – Canadian CPI: The Loonie has performed the worst against its counterpart from south so far this week. Yesterday we got the hideous retail sales report from the Canadian economy which substantially weighted on the CAD. Moreover, the latest release on retail sales could suggest that a peak in consumption in the current business cycle could be very close (possibly over the next one or two quarters). Otherwise, the CAD has suffered from a tremendous discount in its oil grade (WCS) which stems from lowered purchases from the US, the major buyer of Canadian crude so far. Thus, today’s inflation reading could be critical, the consensus points to 1.5% yoy in terms of the headline gauge.

6:00 pm BST – Oil rigs count: The weekly update provided by Baker Hughes may influence oil prices quite noticeably from time to time as liquidity is already fairly low. The past weeks showed a gradual increase in active oil rigs in response to a jump in prices and the story is expected to continue last week too. Let us remind that the DoE reported an unexpected draw yesterday which sent the commodity price higher and from a technical point of view it could be already poised to end its latest corrective retreat.

Central bank speakers scheduled for today:

  • 12:00 pm BST – BoE’s Ramsden
  • 3:15 pm BST – FED’s Dudley
  • 6:30 pm BST – ECB’s Coeure
  • 6:30 pm BST – FED’s Mester
  • 8:40 pm BST – FED’s Williams

link do file download linkFriday could be a crucial day for the Loonie, 1.2680 seems to be a critical technical level to watch. Source: xStation5