• Bank of Canada decision is the highlight in Wednesday’s calendar
  • GBP will be in the spotlight due to the GDP report
  • Oil traders will focus on the DOE report

After somewhat sluggish start of the week the next three days could be very intensive with the BoC decision today, ECB hype tomorrow and the US GDP on Friday. While the meeting of Bank of Canada is by far the highlight of today’s calendar it’s not the lone event worth attention. Let’s analyse these events case by case:

9am BST – Ifo index in Germany, consensus 115.1 pts. – the consensus sees a stabilization of the index at a high level after a 115.2 reading in September. It’d match a similar picture shown by PMIs and is unlikely to change sentiment ahead of the ECB tomorrow.

9.30am BST – UK Q3 GDP, consensus +0.3% q/q and +1.5% y/y – a very important release. We have the BoE meeting next week and markets are nearly sure a hike will be decided. However, the latest data was not stellar and another disappointment could have GBP reeling. A bar does not seem to be too high though at just +0.3% q/q.

1:30pm BST – US data on durable orders, consensus +1% for the headline and +0.5% m/m for the core – the consumer demand is seen picking up following hurricane disturbances and if today’s report could confirm that, that could support the latest strength of the greenback. 

3pm BST – the BoC decision – in fact it’s 3pm decision, 3:30 report release and 4:15 conference of BoC’s Poloz. BoC buoyed the CAD at the two past meetings by increasing interest rates. This time a hike seems to be out of question but then after weaker sales data expectations also run very low for the CAD. This could be a chance for the CAD: if Poloz hints at future increases in rates the CAD could be in high demand again. 

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GBPCAD will be in the spotlight today. The pair remains near a resistance so from that perspective declines could be more likely. Source: xStation5 

3:30pm BST – the DOE report on inventories, consensus -2.8mb – the API showed a somewhat surprising build in oil inventories of 0.5mb but at the same time a major draw in gasoline inventories (-5.75mb). Therefore a report was positive for the market and investors will look for good news today as well. 

10:45pm BST – trade balance in New Zealand, consensus -900m NZD – the kiwi has been under pressure of late and we do not think trade balance data could change that. However, it’s still one of the major releases of the Asian session.