- Preliminary European PMIs should draw attention before noon
- The Canadian bunch of data could be decisive for the Loonie
- Many central bank speakers on the agenda
The last trading day this week is packed with many relevant macroeconomic readings. Beside European PMIs and Canadian inflation, we’ll have plethora of speeches delivered chiefly by ECB and FED members. Thus, it’ll be another busy day for G10 currency traders before they leave the markets to put their feet up.
European PMIs (preliminary readings): The economic expansion on the old continent cannot be questioned, thus today’s PMIs should confirm that we are uninterruptedly on track to get yet higher GDP growth. Nevertheless, we’ve experienced a divergence between manufacturing and services of the course of recent months. While the former seems to be in line with a broad-based recovery, the latter trails behind. So, readings for September could offer another chance to get a convergence between those two sectors. The consensuses are as follows:
France – 8:00 am BST – Manufacturing: 55.5 Services: 54.8
Germany – 8:30 am BST – Manufacturing: 59 Services: 53.8
Euro Area – 9:00 am BST – Manufacturing: 57.1 Services: 54.7
1:30 pm BST – Canadian CPI and retail sales: The Canadian dollar has been one of the strongest currency over the course of recent months as the BoC has already hiked rates twice with a second move being a toss-up and having massive reverberations for the Loonie. The FED has brought about a short-lived retreat, however another better than expected data should convince investors that the current price of the USDCAD might constitute an excellent opportunity to join the bearish trend. In this respect, inflation and retail sales are among the hottest prints to watch. CPI is expected to come in at 1.5% yoy while retail sales are forecast to bring a 0.1% mom increase and a 0.4% mom pick-up for the headline and ex-auto respectively.
2:45 pm BST – US manufacturing and services PMIs: The US dollar got a temporary boost from the Federal Reserve on Wednesday but it petered out yesterday. The greenback is already down 0.3% today, hence better PMIs could help a bit. Of course, those readings are no so crucial like ISM, however they might give a clue how the economy has performed amid adverse weather conditions. The manufacturing release is slated to come in at 53, whereas the services one should show 55.9.
6:00 pm BST – US oil rigs count: The downward trend in terms of US oil rigs count is anticipated to continued, thus any deviation to the upside should be oil-negative.
Central bank speakers – we have a lot of speeches scheduled for today mainly from FED and ECB. Let us come forth with the full tally of them:
- 8:15 am BST – ECB’s Coreue
- 9:30 am BST and 10:30 am BST – ECB’s Draghi
- 10:00 am BST – Norges Bank’s Olssen
- 10:00 am BST – SNB’s Moser
- 11:00 am BST – FED’s Williams
- 11:15 am BST – Riksbank’s Floden
- 12:15 pm BST and 14:15 pm BST – ECB’s Constancio
- 2:30 pm BST – FED’s George
- 6:30 pm BST – FED’s Kaplan
The USDCAD may be one of the most volatile currency pair today. 1.2410 seems to be a hard hurdle jump over, however if today’s releases disillusion, the price could break it quite easily. Source: xStation5