• Canadian inflation and retail sales could be decisive for CAD
  • Final US GDP for the third quarter on tap
  • US jobless claims will give an insight into the labour market

Thursday’s agenda is full of top-tier economic data from Canada and the US, hence investors should mainly focus on CAD and USD. Canadian retail sales and inflation, in particular, could be decisive when it comes to BoC monetary policy path for 2018. As far as the US economy is concerned the data for the third quarter is to only confirm a decent rate of growth. 

1:30 pm BST – Canada, retail sales and inflation data for November.  In Canada the central bank needs more reasons to return to rate increases. Data on inflation and sales could be decisive in terms of how the CAD is going to close this year. The street expects Canadian consumer price inflation in November rose 2.0% y/y, accelerating the pace of growth from the previous month (+1.4%). As far as retail sales data is concerned, economists forecast an increase of 0.3% m/m (+0.1% previously).

1:30 pm BST – US, final Q3 GDP print. The final reading of third-quarter US economic growth measured by GDP is expected to confirm the US economy grew at 3.3% in the previous quarter, matching the 3.3% growth achieved in the second quarter. Moreover, we get additional details on PCE inflation and corporate profits. However, these figures should not be crucial for USD which remains under pressure despite passing the tax bill.

1:30 pm BST – US, jobless claims and Philly Fed Manufacturing for December. Besides the GDP print, we also get weekly jobless claims reflecting a condition of the labour market. This reading is expected to inch higher to 231k from 225k prior. Philly Fed Manufacturing is one of the most important leading indicators for the US economy. The index is seen declining to 215 from 22.7.

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 USDCAD has been moving within present consolidation for over two months. After a successful re-test of 1.2916 handle, the pair could be headed towards 1.2683 mark. Source: xStation5