• Candian GDP is the key release today
  • We get the final UK’s GDP for the second quarter and preliminary inflation figures from euro area for September this morning
  • Oil rig count data will show if the US producers limited their operations further

On the final trading day this week, we have a busy economic calendar. This morning investors await the final GDP revision and Eurozone flash CPI could provide fresh insights on the ECB monetary policy stance going forward. Moreover, the Canadian GDP for July will decide on the prospects for USDCAD in the near future. Amongst central bankers’ speeches, BOE Governor Carney’s will hog the limelight, while BOE MPC member Broadbent and FOMC member Harker are also scheduled to speak in the afternoon.

9:30 am BST – UK final GDP reading for the second quarter. As far as the growth data is concerned, it should not affect the pound too much as it’ll be a final reading, hence there should be just negligible differences compared to the second reading. GDP is slated to show 1,7% yoy in Q2, up from 1.2% seen in the prior quarter, down from 2.0% seen in the prior quarter.

10:00 am BST – the preliminary inflation figures form eurozone for September. Inflation data is always compelling especially when the ECB is in a position to begin changing its monthly asset purchase programme. Stronger readings should make it more possible. On the other hand, a base effect might weigh into inflation in upcoming months. The latest figures from Spain and Germany didn’t surprise to the upside, so the today’s reading shouldn’t beat expectations. Consensus suggests 1.7% yoy for CPI and 1.2% for a core measure.

1:30 pm BST – Canadian GDP for July. CAD substantially appreciated in the last few months, underpinned by BoC’s two rate hikes. However, governor Poloz has softened his rhetoric of late and general strength of the US dollar pushed USDCAD higher. Thus, today’s reading will be crucial for short-term outlook for the pair. Monthly GDP is slated to show 0.1% in July, down from 0.3% seen in the prior month.

2:45-3:00 pm BST – USA, Chicago PMI for September and final readings of UoM’s indices. These readings due to lack of other releases from the US economy may spur some volatility on USD. Chicago PMI is seen at 58.5 (down from 58.9 previously), while UoM consumer sentiment should show 95.3 pts.

6:00 pm BST – US oil rigs count. The downward trend in terms of US oil rigs count is anticipated to continued, thus any deviation to the upside should be oil-negative.

Let us come forth with all central bankers’ appearances put into the calendar today:

  • 1:00 pm BST – BoE’s Cunliffe
  • 1:30 pm BST – BoE’s Broadbent 
  • 3:45 pm BST – BoE’s Carney
  • 4:00 pm BST – Fed’s Harker

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 USDCAD has been moving in an upward channel of late. Today’s GDP reading may be crucial for short-term outlook for the pair. Source: xStation5