- Preliminary durable goods orders is a key release from the US
- Crude oil stocks are expected to show a build, but API reports a draw
- Today’s RBNZ meeting is the last one with the incumbent governor Wheeler
- Some central bank speakers on the agenda as well
The US dollar is again the strongest currency within the G10 basket which is a ramification of yesterday’s speech delivered by Janet Yellen. She reiterated that a December rate hike is still on the cards (not straightforwardly obviously). Markets have not fully priced in that a move so far, hence there is space for further short-term appreciation of the US dollar. Looking at today’s calendar we have a few notable events which could make commodity-related currencies the most volatile.
1:30 pm BST – US durable goods orders: It’s the sole data scheduled for today from the US economy and is expected to come in at 1% mom and 0.2% mom for the headline and the core measure (ex-transport) respectively. These readings are quite volatile, hence it’s better to look at a year-over-year basis which seems to by fairly solid. Underlying trends remain unfazed and hover close to its mid-2014 peaks. From the US dollar standpoint one could assume that today’s reading might have a limited impact, though the currency has gained a great deal so far this week, therefore it could be a bit more vulnerable.
3:30 pm BST – Crude oil stocks by DoE: As usual, we got the API report on oil inventories yesterday which showed an unexpected draw by 0.76 million barrels while the Reuters consensus pointed to quite a massive build by 3.4 million barrels. It could be a sign of fading impacts of the hurricanes, notice that oil stockpiles have tended to increase of late due to a lowered demand from the US refineries. As far as today’s reading is concerned, the street’s call suggests a 3.42 million barrels build but expectations have been slightly tilted to the downside following the API’s results. That said, it seems that oil prices might get a positive surprise which could yet buttress them.
9:00 pm BST – RBNZ meeting: Even though market expectations suggest nothing new should be expected (the OCR is anticipated to remain at 1.75%), today’s meeting is special for departing governor Wheeler who will be changed by Grant Spencer who has held the position of Deputy Governor and Head of Financial Stability thus far. When it comes to the meeting, market participants seem to be decided that any change in rates will not occur till late 2018, to be precise odds for a hike today stand at… 0.3%. On the flip side, focus will be on the statement where some hints with regard to a possible change of the current course in monetary policy might be included, don’t expect straightforward clues though. Keep in mind that the New Zealand dollar has been on the back foot against the greenback of late and that scheme may be continuing due to rising odds for a hike in the US in December. On the other hand, the NZD might perform better against the AUD as the latter is expected to come under pressure owing to the oncoming Chinese Communist Party congress.
Central bank speakers:
- 8:10 am BST – ECB’s Nouy
- 10:00 am BST – Norges Bank’s Nicolaisen
- 10:15 am BST – Norges Bank’s Kristiansand
- 2:15 pm BST – FED’s Kashkari
- 4:45 pm BST – BoC’s Poloz (notice, he is scheduled to begin speaking at 5 pm, but remarks will be published on the Bank’s website 15 minutes earlier)
- 6:30 pm BST – FED’s Bullard
- 7:00 pm BST – FED’s Brainard