European inflation expected to downtick
US housing market data to deteriorate further
Crude inventories by DOE should decline along with the distillates and gasoline stocks
In Tuesday’s macroeconomic calendar we have some interesting readings planned to be released. Among them investors will find final CPI reading from EMU that will be released in the morning and the housing market data from the US which will take the stage in the afternoon. Apart from that, oil traders may want to stay cautious in the evening as weekly DOE report on oil inventories will be published. Moreover, in the morning (8:00 am BST) the monthly report from The International Energy Agency (IEA) on the oil market will be released.
10:00 am BST – Eurozone, CPI Inflation for April. The final inflation reading for April from the eurozone. The preliminary reading released on May 3 disappointed investors by missing the estimate of 1.3% YoY and coming in at 1.2% YoY. The core gauge was expected to show 0.9% YoY while in fact it turned out to be just 0.7% YoY. However, the headline measure was later revised up to 1.3% YoY. Nevertheless, such data justifies the ECB’s “hold” stance as the price growth is way below target and does not seem to be reaching it in nearby future. Today’s reading is expected to show headline CPI to slid from 1.3% YoY to 1.2% YoY and the core measure to remain at 0.7% YoY.
1:30 pm BST – US, Housing Market Data for April. The US housing market is doing really well what can be seen by looking at the latest housing starts and building permits data. Both gauges remain at elevated levels with the latter being close to the ATH. As higher interest rate mean higher borrowing costs the US housing market may take a hit from the monetary tightening. Today’s permits and starts figures may offer some insight whether developers are afraid of such scenario or not. The building permits are expected to drop 2.1% MoM to 1350k while the housing starts should slid 0.7% MoM to 1310k.
3:30 pm BST – US, Crude Oil Inventories. API report has shown a significant build of 4.85 mb against expected 1.5mb drop. In turn we can see long upper wicks on both WTI and Brent when we take a look at the daily chart as the major build signalled by API helped erase yesterday’s gains. DOE report released today is expected to show a 1.5 mb drop when it comes to the crude inventories. The distillate stocks are expected to shrink by 1.8 mb while the gasoline inventories should decrease by 1 mb.
Central bank speakers scheduled for today:
9:10 am BST – BoE’s John
1:00 pm BST – ECB President Draghi
1:30 pm BST – Fed’s Bostic
1:30 pm BST – ECB’s Coeure
3:30 pm BST – ECB’s Praet
5:00 pm BST – SNB’s Jordan
5:15 pm BST – BoC’s Schembri
10:30 pm BST – Fed’s Bullard
Despite hawkish remarks from ECB members EURUSD may have fallen within a mid-term support zone. Today’s data may offer some hints on the direction of the breakout. Source: xStation5