Labour market data to be decisive for USDCAD
Investors will pay close attention to US wage data
Fed’s Evans to speak on monetary policy in the evening
On Friday investors will be focused on the labour market data from the US and Canadian economies. USD traders will especially pay attention to the wage data after decent pick-up observed last time. Canadian data may provide additional fuel to CAD after it strengthened on the Trump’s tariff exemption announcement. We will get one important reading from Europe as UK industrial production data is scheduled for release in the early morning. It is also worth to note that the Bank of Italy will publish its monthly “Money and Banks” report at 10:00 am BST.
9:30 am BST – UK, Industrial Production for January. The UK manufacturing industry has been doing quite well recently with production constantly rising throughout the second half of 2017. However, after reaching 4.7% YoY peak in October 2017 the production slowed somewhat. Market consensus points for a 0.2% MoM increase against 0.3% seen last time and 2.8% YoY against 1.4% YoY.
1:30 pm BST – US, Nonfarm Payrolls for February. Labour market report is the top US release this week. Market consensus expects further tightening of the US labour market with a change in nonfarm payrolls at the level of 205k against last month’s 200k. The unemployment rate is also expected to fall to 4% from 4.1%. However, the investors will mainly focus on the earnings data as the wage growth was long awaited and when it finally moved close to 3% the markets reacted nervously. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg expect that the wages grew at the pace of 2.8% in February against 2.9% seen in January. One should keep in mind that in February this data was subject to unfavourable base effect thus reaching the consensus can be treated as a success.
1:30 pm BST – Canada, Employment Change for February. Last month’s Canadian labour market data has shown a 88k decrease in the number of people employed with a huge drop in the part time jobs. Canadian dollar plunged on the news. This time markets expect an increase of 21k. The unemployment rate is expected to remain on the level of 5.9% and the participation rate to inch higher to 65.6% from 65.5%.
Central bank speakers scheduled for today:
1:40 pm BST – Fed’s Evans
3:45 pm BST – Fed’s Evans
5:40 pm BST – Fed’s Rosengren
5:45 pm BST – Fed’s Evans (Speech on Monetary Policy)
USDCAD halted gains in the vicinity of 50% retracement level of the 2017’s major decline. Today’s data may be decisive for the future of this currency pair. Source: xStation5