- Release of the FOMC minutes is a key event today
- We will get two reports on oil market – from OPEC and API
- A few central bankers are scheduled to deliver speeches
Wednesday’s data-wise is rather calm, although the release of the FOMC minutes in the evening will be one of the most important events this week. Besides this publication, the OPEC monthly report on oil market is out today. Crude could also react to API data on the US oil inventories – the report will be released on Wednesday due to Columbus Day on Monday. One should look at central bankers speeches as well.
3:00 pm BST – US, JOLTs Jobb Openings for August. This measure tracks the number of specific job openings in an economy. Job vacancies generally include either newly created or unoccupied positions, this is an early indicator of labour market conditions and thus it’s one of the favourite data for Fed. The dollar reaction to the report should be limited though.
7:00 pm BST – US, FOMC minutes. The Fed surprised to the upside in September clearly suggesting another interest rate hike for this year so a detailed discussion could be important for the markets. Investors will be looking for details not only related to this but also the next year as the current pricing of future interest rate hikes is low. The market prices in the rate increase in December at above 76%.
9:40 pm BST – Crude oil stocks by API. The last week brought a significant drop in oil stocks, although the US export rose to relatively high level. Thus, this week report will show if the downward trend is sustained.
Tentative – OPEC monthly report. The publication shouldn’t be a game changer. Nevertheless, numbers on deal compliance and supply&demand estimates are valuable for investors. Additionally, it’s worth stressing that Saudi Aramco, the state oil company of Saudi Arabia, has announced that the firm will ship 560k barrels a day less than their customers are requesting in November. This information pushed oil prices higher yesterday.
There are scheduled a few speakers from central banks, including Fed and ECB:
- 12:15 pm BST – Fed’s Evans
- 7:40 pm BST – Fed’s Williams
- 7:50 pm BST – ECB’s Praet
The USD index (USDIDX on xStation5) didn’t manage to break above 23.6% Fibo retracement. As long as the 21-period EMA will be respected, bulls could try to re-test earlier mentioned resistance. Source: xStation5