• US preliminary GDP release for Q3 is by far the most noteworthy event today
  • Swedish retail sales seem important after the Riksbank meeting
  • Several central bank speakers on the agenda as well

Friday is all about the US GDP preliminary release for the third quarter. It’ll be the first print, hence its impact on the US dollar ought to be significant. Before noon we got solely Swedish retail sales, so the SEK could wobble. On top of that, several speeches of central bankers are scheduled as well.

8:30 am BST – Swedish retail sales: One can conclude that the Riskbank didn’t take us by surprise on Thursday as it left rates unchanged and decided not to adjust its projected interest rates path. Moreover, it stopped short of signaling some policy changes in the nearest future despite the buoyant economic performance. Having said that, each data is worth looking at in terms of forecasting possible future steps taken by the Swedish policymakers. The consensus suggests that retail sales have increased 3.1% yoy in September.

1:30 pm BST – US GDP release: It’ll be the initial release of US GDP growth for the third quarter, hence it could exert some pressures on the greenback and the US indices alike. In this respect one needs to underline that we got two bleak prints when it comes to inventories (both wholesale and retail) which could deduct a bit from the third quarter for sure. As a result, the Atlanta FED GDPNow model lowered its estimate for today’s release from 2.7% to 2.5% while the broad consensus indicates 2.6% qoq (annualized). Besides we’ll get the final release of US consumer confidence measured by the University of Michigan.

6:00 pm BST – oil rigs count: A count of US oil rigs fell last week and it’s expected to continue that a trend going forward. If so oil prices could get a slight boost at the end of the week however, keep in mind that the commodity price could shake in the upcoming weeks as we’ll be nearing the OPEC semi-annual gathering.

Central bank speakers scheduled for today:

  • 8:00 am BST – Norges Bank’s Matsen
  • 8:15 am BST – ECB’s Praet
  • 11:45 am BST – ECB’s Angeloni
  • 12:00 pm BST – ECB’s Weidmann

link do file download linkThe EURUSD blasted its key technical support following the ECB meeting, hence a move to the downside could continue even up to 1.1450. Source: xStation5