- Riksbank decision will be the most important before noon
- ECB should attract most of attention, euro could be exposed
- Crude oil stocks report should reveal a drop fueled by Harvey’s consequences
Thursday’s macroeconomic calendar is packed with two huge events related to central banks. The Swedish Riksbank is going to announce its decision before noon. In turn, the ECB may steal the show in the afternoon. Moreover, there is a reading considering US oil stockpiles. All of that means that there should be a hectic session on the FX market.
8:30 am BST – Riksbank’s decison: The Swedish central bank is expected to leave interest rates unchanged but much more focus could be on discussions regarding some changes in terms of a gauge of inflation. If implemented, it’s supposed to be the SEK-supportive news. On top of that, the Riksbank could allude to the SEK as it’s appreciated quite meaningfully since the latest meeting. In addition, let us recall that the political deadlock seems to be already resolved as the Swedish govt avoided no-confidence vote after all.
1:30 pm BST – ECB’s press conference (being followed by the decision at 12:45 pm BST): The Draghi’s press conference is slated to be the major event today. Many leaks which have emerged of late suggest that nervousness has substantially mounted. A big question mark is whether Draghi wants to talk the euro down directly. There is a possibility that he will beat around the bush as he’s tended to do so lately. Thus, investors have to be geared up to read between the lines in order to pull out some constructive hints with regard to winding down the balance sheet.
4:00 pm BST – US crude oil stocks (governmental report): There is guesswork that today’s reading will include ramifications of the hurricane Harvey, thus a pick-up is stockpiles could be expected. What’s more, API unveiled an increase in stocks by 2.8mb for the week ended September 1. The consensus suggests a rise by 4mb, hence a lower than estimated reading could be positive for oil prices. Finally, the hurricane Irma might be lifting WTI oil prices making the spread to Brent prices narrower.
The EURSEK could be the most volatile currency pair within the G10 basket. The price has been contained between two quite notable levels. A breakout of either a resistance or support could lead to an extended move. Source: xStation5