- UK jobs data could offer more insight into the economy performance
- Inflation and retail sales are expected to draw the most attention afternoon
- Oil falls in the morning as the DoE release will be a key one during the day
Wednesday is packed with many crucial macroeconomic releases which could provide reasons to see larger moves across major currencies. The UK jobs report seems to be the most important before noon especially after the yesterday’s miss seen in CPI. Besides there will be two prints from the US economy concerning CPI and retail sales while the DoE weekly report ought to be scrutinized by commodity traders.
9:30 am BST – UK jobs data: While the Bank of England chose to hike interest rates in order to tackle undue inflationary pressures stemming chiefly from the weaker pound, the yesterday’s inflation reading showed that rates of price growth (both the headline and the core) stayed has stayed unchanged in the past month casting a shadow on the latest step taken by the MPC. Nevertheless if the labor market keeps tightening and wage growth begins improving, this scenario would justify less expansionary policy, hence today’s release is especially worth looking at. Average weekly earnings are estimated to come in at 2.1% (2.2% seen in August) whereas earnings excluding bonuses should grow from 2.1% to 2.2% in September. Otherwise, the jobless rate is forecast to stay at 4.3% while a jobless claims change is to show 2.3k.
1:30 pm BST – US inflation and retail sales: The US dollar has started off this week on the wrong foot while a decline was continued on Tuesday with the EURUSD touching 1.1800 following the solid GDP releases from the European economies. However, the greenback could get back some of its appeal later today as CPI may surprise to the upside given an unexpected increase in PPI reported yesterday. Either way, the consensus assumes 2% yoy meaning a decrease from 2.2% yoy seen in September, nevertheless one needs to take into consideration that a base effect should eat into price growth in the upcoming months. In turn core CPI is forecast to come in at 1.7% yoy, in line with the prior release. Besides, retail sales should drop from 1.6% mom in September to 0% mom in October while sales excluding autos will show a 0.2% increase according to the consensus.
3:30 pm BST – Crude oil stocks by DoE: The API reported yesterday evening that crude inventories increased as much as 6.5 million barrels for the week ending 10 November. On top of that, gasoline marked a 2.4 million barrels build as well while stockpiles in Cushing lowered 1.8 million barrels. Overall the reading was bearish for oil prices which are losing more than 1% in the morning. Notice that the speculative positioning remains close to its highs suggesting the commodity might be vulnerable to such kind of reports. The next occasion to experience heightened volatility in oil will be afternoon when the governmental data is released. The forecast indicates that stocks have fallen 1.8 million barrels, however given a healthy pick-up reported by the American Petroleum Institute one may assume that expectations lean towards a slight increase.
Central bank speakers:
- 8:00 am BST – FED’s Evans
- 8:00 am BST – ECB’s Hansson
- 10:00 am BST – ECB’s Praet
- 1:00 pm BST – BoE’s Broadbent
- 9:10 pm BST – FED’s Rosengren