• FOMC minutes are in the spotlight during today’s session
  • Preliminary data on US durable goods orders are worth keeping an eye as well
  • US Department of Energy will reveal its weekly change in oil stocks
  • New Zealand retail sales could help the beleaguered NZD

Wednesday is full of macroeconomic releases where the US dollar and oil prices might be the most volatile assets. There is no doubt that the FOMC minutes are the most awaited event today, however needless to say that retail sales from the NZ economy could have an equally important impact on the NZD. On top of that, oil traders will await impatiently a weekly report of the US DoE which seems to especially of note given what the API showed yesterday.

1:30 pm BST – US preliminary durable goods orders: Today’s data will be first for the new quarter (October), hence it could have slightly larger repercussions on the US dollar as usual. It needs to underline that all components of durable goods (those excluding transportation or aircraft and parts) have been quite solid of late being close to the levels from the late 2014. Once October brings a continuation of this trend, it could increase confidence with regard to the sturdy pace of GDP growth. The consensus points to 0.5% mom for orders excluding transportation and 0.3% mom as for the headline.

3:30 pm BST – Crude oil inventories by the DoE: Oil prices stole the show overnight as both grades climbed quite substantially. The reason came from the API report which illustrated a massive draw of stocks (over 6 million barrels), the largest one for 3 months. Moreover, higher prices were supported by revelations on Canadian pipeline disruption to the USA and investors expecting that OPEC will prolong production cuts next week. When the API’s calculations are confirmed by the governmental release today, it could prompt oil traders to involve in the market anew despite a looming risk in form of the OPEC meeting. Expectations call for a 1.43 draw, however it could have been tilted to yet a deeper draw after the API report.

7:00 pm BST – FOMC minutes: The minutes from the meeting which took place at the turn of October and November are unlikely to offer any clues as far as the future rate hikes are concerned. However market’s attention could be paid to description of the recent economic performance. Let us recall that the Federal Reserve voiced a bit more upbeat remarks on the economy, hence there may be more details contained in the report today.

10:45 pm BST – NZ retail sales: The New Zealand dollar has been on the back foot over the course of the latest months mainly due to political turmoil and a possible revamp in the RBNZ. Since the general election which took place approximately two months ago the NZ dollar has lost more than 5 cents and technically there is still some space to continue those declines. On the other hand today’s retail sales could buttress the Antipodean currency as the consensus points to just a 0.4% qoq rise compared to a 2% qoq pick-up seen in the second quarter.

link do file download linkThe NZDUSD has slid below its support zone, however it has recovered since then. Notice that the price is approaching a key resistance being underpinned by a descending trend line. Source: xStation5