Summary:

  • Swedish retail sales is the sole noteworthy reading before noon
  • US GDP (the final third print) along with the trade data seem to be especially of note
  • Oil prices are falling in the morning. Will the DoE report underpin them?

During today’s session the data concerning oil price seems to be the most important one, and this is especially true when we take into account the yesterday’s API release printing an unexpected stocks build (5.3 million barrels). The API numbers agreed with those provided by the DoE last week, hence there is the likelihood to see a deeper pullback in the commodity price should the DoE confirms such an increase. Let us present the full calendar for Wednesday.

8:30 am BST – Swedish retail sales: The Swedish currency seems to have the promising outlook ahead as the Riksbank is already setting the stage for the first rate hike later this year. The major concern related to the housing market has eased off to some extent as a prices’ slump has slowed down. Moreover, Swedish central bank deputy governor Skingsley said this morning that it’s natural to raise rates before the ECB and she’s not worried about overheating tendencies. All of those comments bode well for the SEK and therefore all the SEK needs is a continued improvement in the macroeconomic data. The consensus for today’s retail sales points to 1.5% yoy in February.

1:30 pm BST – US (final) GDP release: The third GDP release is expected to come in at 2.7% qoq in an annualized basis. As it’s the final print its impact on assets could be less visible, however, the trade data (a goods trade balance for February) appears to deserve more attention having regard to trade war concerns (even as they have subsided to some extent of late). The deficit is anticipated to decrease slightly from $75.3 billion in January to $74.4 billion.

3:30 pm BST – Oil stocks by DoE: The API calculations took traders off-guard yesterday showing a massive 5.3 million barrels build. Thus, the official consensus before the DoE report indicating a 0.4 million barrels increase may be tilted to the upside. Therefore, oil prices could be more resilient to a bit higher than a 0.4 million barrels rise. On top of that, gasoline inventories are forecast to shrink by 2 million barrels while distillates stockpiles should slide 1.5 million barrels.

Central bank speakers scheduled for today:

  • 5:00 pm BST – Fed’s Bostic

link do file download linkWTI prices keep on retreating from its peak placed at around $66.5. The nearest support bulls could eye is localized at $64.2 and if broken it could enable sellers to continue marching south. Source: xStation5