Summary:

  • GBP traders await retail sales reading for March

  • A semi-important US labour market reading to be released in the afternoon

  • Fed Vice Chairman Quarles to testify before Senate

Thursday’s calendar looks empty yet we will be offered two quite important readings. In the morning UK data concerning retail sales will be published therefore one should be aware that an increased volatility on GBP may spur. Apart from that in the early afternoon weekly semi-important reading from the US labour market will see the daylight. Last but not least at 2:30 pm BST Fed’s Quarles will give semi-annual testimony on supervision before Senate Banking Committee.

9:30 am BST – UK, Retail Sales for March. After superb increases seen in the value of retail sales in 2016 the gauge somewhat deteriorated throughout 2017 reaching bottom of -0.3% YoY in October 2017. Since then retail sales rose by 1.5% YoY on average. This time market consensus points for a reading of 1.9% YoY indicating a quite notable upside against last month’s 1.5% YoY. When it comes to the core measure it is also expect to show a significant uptick as economists herald a print of 1.4% YoY against February’s 1.1%. One should keep in mind that March’s reading will be a subject to a rather low “base ” (1.7% YoY in March 2017) therefore there is some potential for the positive surprise.

1:30 pm BST – US, Initial Jobless Claims. The relevance of the initial jobless claims reading shrinked lately yet it is still worth to watch as one may use the weekly prints to assess condition of the US labour market ahead of the monthly NFP report. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg expect that throughout the past week 230k people have filed for the unemployment insurance.

Central bank speakers scheduled for today:

11:10 am BST – BoE’s Brazier

1:00 pm BST – Fed’s Brainard

2:30 pm BST – Fed’s Quarles

5:00 pm BST – Norges Bank Governor Olsen

5:30 pm BST – BoE’s Cunliffe

6:15 pm BST – Norges Bank Deputy Governor Nicolaisen

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GBPUSD managed to test the 78.6% retracement level (1.4369) of the Brexit slump yet it proved to be too strong for GBP bulls. Today’s dataset may provide the pair with fuel for potential retest. Source: xStation5