- UK retail sales is the most crucial release during the day
- Some less relevant data from the US economy
- A few central bank speakers scheduled for the next hours
This week has been quite stormy for the British pound so far as the currency got equivocal data regarding the labor market as well as inflation which could constitute a hard nut to crack for the BoE at its meeting on 2 November. Today’s retail sales will be the last (except the initial reading of GDP next week) important report which could help the BoE make a decision on interest rates, thus its importance is obvious.
9:30 am BST – UK retail sales: The British pound has gotten a bit mixed data so far this week which on balance turned out to be a drag on the GBP. Even as inflation remains vastly above the BoE’s target, wage growth is still below expectations which warrants cautiousness when it comes to hiking rates as soon as possible (November). One could say that today’s retail sales might be exceptionally relevant and it it disappoints, the BoE could find itself under pressure as it’d be a signal of constantly slowing household expenditure. The consensus suggests that retail sales grew 2.1% yoy (the headline) and 2.2% yoy (the core) in the prior month.
1:30 pm BST – Jobless claims and Philadelphia FED Index: The jobless claims reading has a little impact on the US dollar but this time it could be affected to some extent by the hurricane Nate, either way the consensus suggests 240k compared to 243k seen last week. On top of that, there will be a Philadelphia FED Index reading concerning the general economic conditions in the region. The consensus expects 22 against the previous month at 23.8.
Central bank speakers worth looking at during the day:
- 2:30 pm BST – FED’s George
- (tentative) – RBA’s Bullock
- 20.10, 7:35 pm BST – BoJ’s Kuroda