Latest CFTC report did not bring a singificant change in traders positioning however, in corn market, we probably observe a turning point. In general, agricultural raw materials, especially grains, are heavily oversold. It did not change since previous CFTC report.
Current positioning in agricultural raw materials compared to other asset classes remains in a very low level, but it is also the most volatile. Source: xStatnion5
In case of this particular market, we observe a potential tipping point. Short positioning starts to fall from the extreme level, this could lead to an increase in positioning and offsetting a difference in short and long positions. Moreover, from the fundamental perspective, corn looks very attractive.
We observe a potential tipping point in corn market. Source: Bloomberg
Speaking of wheat, we observe a consolidation after large reduction of negative positioning. Price of wheat rebounded recently but it still remains under pressure, where $440 price level is a significant resistance. If prices managed to break above this level, we could observe a rise to $500 level if any positive fundamental signal occurs.
Positioning in wheat market remains in a consolidation. A number of open interest is at a very high level. Source: Bloomberg
A potential tipping point in soybean market have been neglected. Price is stil under selling pressure and a rebound in short positioning continues. For now, except US export perspective for this market, we do not see any positive news.
Soybean have neglected a potential tipping point in positioning. Source: Bloomberg