- Final US GDP Q/Q 3.1% vs 3.0% exp
- Sharp move higher seen in 4-week average jobless claims
- Mixed data leaves USD searching for direction
The US economy grew faster than expected in the second quarter of the year with an annnualised rise of 3.1% seen compared to a prior reading of 3.0%. The beat now means the past 9 GDP readings for the world’s largest economy have beaten consensus forecasts in what has an incredible run.
A strong rise in personal consumption has boosted the final US GDP print. Source XTB Macrobond
At the same time as the positive GDP release, the latest weekly jobless claims showed a rise of 272k. The past 4 readings for this employment indicator have shown a marked rise following the damage done by hurricane Harvey. Whilst there remains a clear downtrend in play the recent increase can be seen clearly by the fairly sharp rise in the 4-week moving average. This could be seen as a warning sign heading into next week’s NFP report.
Even though it remains near multi-decade lows there has been a sharp rise seen in the 4-week average since hurricane Harvey. Source: XTB Macrobond
Taken together these releases offer little by the way of further clues for the next directon for the US dollar. The buck has been on a steady move higher since the Fed decision last week reaching a high of 93.48 this morning. There has been a bit of a pullback since but the market remains in a short term uptrend and has not even fulfilled the minimum fib retracement (23.6% at 92.95) of the rally.
The USDIDX remains firmly higher following the Fed decision last week. The 23.6% pullback at 92.95 has not been met yet. Source: xStation