Summary:
- USD drops with JOLTS number disappointing
- SPA35 recovers and nears key level
- Oil a little lower despite upbeat OPEC report; BP shares at 2017 peak
- Crypto little changed despite Putin comments
It’s a relatively quiet day of economic release with the US JOLTS openings the only data out of note. Whilst this number doesn’t attract much attention or cause anywhere near the volatility that the more widely viewed NFP report does, it has been quoted before by the Fed on several occasions when discussing the labour market and therefore could impact on the central banks decision making. The reading of 6.08M would be classed as fairly strong historically speaking but given an expected 6.13M and a downward revision to the prior to 6.14M from 6.17M previously it will likely be seen as a slightly soft number.
Stock indices have experienced a fairly subdued days trade with the US500 and DE30 little changed and close to their recently posted all-time highs. There has been some action in the SPA35 however and the leading Spanish benchmark could be approaching a key longer term level for several technical reasons. The fundamental backdrop remains a source of potential worry but the suspension of the declaration of independence last night from Puigdemont has gone some way to calming the nerves of jittery investors.
The release of the monthly OPEC bulletin has contained several positive aspects for the oil price with perhaps the greatest plus the upwards revision of the groups 2017 global oil demand growth forecast at to 1.5m b/d. This represents a small adjustment higher of just 30k b/d on the prior report but nonetheless it is a positive development and with non-OPEC supply expected to grow by 0.7m b/d over the same period, if the forecasts prove correct then the supply glut which caused the large drop beginning in 2014 will be reduced this year.
Russian is one of the most interesting countries to watch in terms of virtual currencies. On the one side, there were expectations that the former soviet country could regulate the cryptocurrency industry, on the other one there are still many unknowns when and if some legal regulations are implemented. Despite this its been an unusually quiet day for cryptocurrencies with none of the 5 markets seeing moves in excess of 1%.
Looking ahead the release of the FOMC minutes this evening at 7pm (BST) has the potential to cause moves in the USD, GOld and US stock markets (US500, US30 and US100). The meeting itself sparked a nice move higher in the buck but the greenback has come under pressure in recent sessions and a failure to strike a hawkish enough chord could leave the USD susceptible to further declines.