Summary:

  • New Zealand jobs report is slated to be the most important release during the day
  • API is going to offer its weekly change of crude stocks, oil could find itself under pressure
  • US trade data the sole reading worth watching this afternoon

While everybody freaks out because of remarkable volatility on the global equity market it’s worth trying to calm down a bit and take a look at today’s macroeconomic calendar soberly. Major attention will be on the New Zealand’s labour market report but before this release it’s worth keeping a close eye on oil prices as they might find themselves under selling pressure as the API is scheduled to release its weekly report on inventories.

1:30 pm BST – US trade data: This kind of macroeconomic release are rarely market movers especially when everybody is heavily focused on equities. Either way, when the dust settles investors will begin analysing the data again so it’s important anyway. Paradoxically, the deeper stock market is, the better performance of the greenback could be as a haven flow should lift demand for the US dollar. The consensus points to -52 billion USD when it comes to the trade balance.

9:40 pm BST – Crude oil stocks by API: Oil prices saw their first more notable decline last week as deteriorating moods all around the world could yet deepen this sell-off. At the time of writing both grades are trading 0.8% lower and given that the API is going to report a pick-up in stockpiles the commodity price could keep on falling. Let us recall that there was a 3.2 million barrels increase last week (API) while the governmental report showed stocks more than two times higher. Along with oil prices the Canadian dollar could be pushed to the wall alike as it’s quite strongly correlated to the commodity price. What’s more, CAD traders will get a reading of Ivey PMI later today.

9:45 pm BST – New Zealand jobs report: The NZ dollar has performed quite well of late being, however, steered mainly on the back of US dollar weakness. Hence, today’s labour market report might be crucial for the currency future but the NZD could have an important obstacle to gain in at a more rapid pace. It’s the whole milk powder price which might witness a pullback in the nearest future as the global stocks are really high. Nevertheless, it may not happen right now and therefore the futures point to a 8% gain during today’s fortnightly dairy auction (do notice that the futures have not been a good predictor recently though). The consensus as for an employment change suggests 0.4% qoq compared to 2.2% qoq seen in the third quarter of 2017. In turn, the jobless rate is expected to tick up from 4.6% to 4.7%.

Central bank speakers scheduled for today:

  • 9:00 am BST – ECB’s Weidmann
  • 1:50 pm BST – FED’s Bullard

link do file download linkWTI oil prices drew possible two bearish engulfing patterns at a daily time frame. The commodity price might find itself under pressure during today’s session. Source: xStation5