Summary:

  • Traders are awaiting the first press conference of Jerome Powell, a rate hike is a done deal
  • UK labour market data will be eagerly watched following a quicker than forecast inflation slowdown
  • RBNZ is expected to leave rates unchanged, the NZ dollar could wobble
  • DoE is likely to report a build of oil stocks but it seems to differ with API calculations

Wednesday abounds in an avalanche of crucial macroeconomic readings as well as central bank meetings. It suggests that we’re going to experience the session being full of price swings and thereby offering many trade opportunities. Let us come forth with the macroeconomic calendar for today.

9:30 am BST – UK labour market data: UK inflation unexpectedly slowed quicker than estimated in February pulling some pressure off the Bank of England (it meets tomorrow). In this respect the wage data appears to be especially of note, however, it needs to be said that today January readings will be released so we have to wait another month to see whether real wage growth came out of a negative territory last month. Either way, the consensus indicates wage growth accelerated during the first month of the year from 2.5% to 2.6% regardless of what a telltale we’re talking about (ex-bonuses and average weekly). Moreover, the jobless rate is forecast to stay at 4.4%.

2:00 pm BST – US existing home sales: The latest US housing data disappointed to some extent raising some (tiny) concerns about general conditions of the whole market there. The median estimate points to a rise in existing home sales to 5.4 million from 5.38 million, however, taking into account the most recent increase of mortgage rates one may suspect that risks are tilted to the downside.

2:30 pm BST – DoE weekly oil stocks change: The yesterday’s API report showed an unexpected decrease of stocks (2.7 million barrels) hence the official consensus ahead of the DoE data pointing to a 2.5 million barrels build may be taken with a grain of salt. Thus, it’s unlikely that oil prices will move up when stocks turn out to be just a touch lower than 2.5 million, and one may estimate that a draw is needed to see oil prices rising from the current levels. Apart from oil it’s worth taking a closer look at changes of gasoline and distillate stockpiles.

6:00 pm BST – Federal Reserve decision: The Fed is widely expected to pull the trigger once again pushing the upper bound of the Fed Funds Rate to 1.75%. Nevertheless, it won’t be the most important part of the entire event as much more attention is likely to be paid to the statement as well as fresh macroeconomic projections along with the dot-plot. If you want to get the most out of the meeting please read our preview.

8:00 pm BST – RBNZ decision: While everybody is waiting for the Fed decision nobody pays attention to the Reserve Bank of New Zealand decision. Of course, the bank is bound to leave rates on hold but a description of economic conditions might be an important part of the meeting. The latest set of macroeconomic readings proved to be quite upbeat therefore it’s likely to be taken into consideration in preparing of the statement (but do not expect explicit remarks). Finally mentions regarding the ex-change rate may deserve more attention as well.

link do file download linkThe EURUSD is bouncing off a lower boundary of a descending channel ahead of the Federal Reserve decision. Source: xStation5