• CB Consumer Confidence expected to remain intact

  • Market consensus suggests the API reading will show a significant decline in inventories

  • Central bankers may spur volatility on EURUSD

Trade tensions continue to sink the global equity markets. The German DAX (DE30) has plunged almost 7% from its latest peak and today’s calendar has little to offer to investors’ relief. In the afternoon a Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index for June will be published but its impact on the stock market should not be significant. In the evening oil traders will be offered a weekly API reading. Throughout the day some ECB and Fed members are scheduled to deliver speeches therefore an additional volatility on EURUSD may surface.

3:00 pm BST – US, CB Consumer Confidence for June. The US economy by far outpaces the European one as in the United States we are observing constant improvement of soft indicators like PMI indices while in the EMU they underperform since the beginning of the year. However, it should be noted that the latest manufacturing PMI reading from the US slid while market expected another advance. When it comes to the confidence indicators June’s UoM reading saw another uptick. Will it be confirmed by the CB print? We will see today. Market expects that the gauge will remain unchanged at 128 pts.

9:30 pm BST – API Crude Oil Stocks. In 2016 OPEC cartel decided to cut oil output in order to bring the market back to the equilibrium point. However, some of countries (i.e. Venezuela) were unable to keep up even with the reduced quotas due to internal factors. Last week group decided to hike production so the output will meet the amount agreed in 2016. In turn we saw a significant jump in the oil price. As risk concerned with the OPEC meeting waned investors from this market will now turn to the regular data. Today’s API reading is expected to show a 2.5 mb decline in the crude oil stocks.

Central bank speakers scheduled for today:

9:00 am BST – ECB’s Hansson

10:30 am BST – BoE’s McCafferty

1:00 pm BST – ECB’s De Guindos

6:15 pm BST – Fed’s Bostic

6:45 pm BST – Fed’s Kaplan

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Following the news that OPEC reached an agreement OIL.WTI surged towards the $69.50. We have seen some downward pressure since the beginning of this week therefore today’s API reading may decide whether the price defends an uptrend line or not. Source: xStation5