• UK earnings growth expected to keep with the previous pace
  • Jerome Powell to testify in the Senate
  • Will API data offer some relief for oil bulls?

On Tuesday investors will be offered some readings that may spur volatility across many markets. The day will start with the UK labour market report that will be closely watched ahead of the BoE meeting in August. Later on, the attention will turn to the Jerome Powell’s first semiannual testimony in the Senate. The day will be concluded by the weekly API data on the oil inventories.

9:30 am BST – UK, Labour Market Data. Labour market report will launch this week’s UK data marathon. Average earnings including bonuses should reinforce its previous pace of growth at 2.5% YoY while earnings excluding bonuses should slide from 2.8% YoY in April to 2.7% YoY in May. The 3-month employment change on MoM basis should show 150k increase in the number of employed people while the unemployment rate should remain on the prior level of 4.2%. Having in mind that the median estimates are more or less in line with previous readings should today’s report confirm them we may see BoE members looking at monetary tightening more eagerly.

3:00 pm BST – Jerome Powell Testimony. Fed chair testimony is another extraordinary event next to the Trump-Putin summit scheduled for this week. Jerome Powell will testify to the Senate Banking Committee today while hearings at the House of Representatives are planned for Wednesday. The event will be closely watched as it will be the first semiannual testimony of Powell as a Fed chair. Traders will try to figure out if the central banker recognizes risks connected to the trade war and possibility of yield curve inversion and if so, will it alter the Fed’s current monetary tightening path?

9:30 pm BST – API Weekly Crude Oil Stocks. Yesterday saw a significant decline in the oil prices amid news that the Saudi Arabia may be set to boost its production output. Combining it with the reduced demand outlook in the monthly OPEC report the picture for the oil bulls is not rosy at all. However, the latest API and DOE readings saw huge drop in the inventories therefore another similar reading may allow buyers to catch a breath.

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Choppy trading on the EURGBP cross continues ahead of a package of the labour market data. Source: xStation5