• ADP employment report together with non-manufacturing ISM seem to be in the limelight this afternoon
  • FOMC minutes might draw investors’ attention after the major meeting in June
  • Oil trades slightly lower ahead of the EIA weekly release
  • Some central bankers scheduled to speak during the day

US traders are back after the Independence Day yesterday, hence do expect liquidity conditions to improve. This is especially true when we take a look at today’s calendar illustrating two big releases from the US as well as FOMC minutes. On top of that oil is expected to be in focus again as the EIA is going to show its stocks calculations.

Before a set of US data one may glance at Swiss inflation and Swedish industrial production. When it comes to the former (8:15 am BST) it is expected to come in at 1.1% in annual terms in June, but the SNB remains a long way off from even thinking about monetary tightening hence even subtly quicker price growth is highly unlikely to change the bank’s stance. In turn, Swedish industrial output for May is going to be released at 8:30 am BST, but no consensus has been offered. What to watch for next?

1:15 pm BST – ADP employment report: The labour market remains one of the brightest spots in the US economy with major attention already paid almost solely to wage growth. Admittedly, today’s release will give us an insight just on the employment outlook offering no clues with regard to wages, it could set expectations ahead of the NFP on Friday. The consensus points to 187k new jobs added in June compared to 178k in the previous month. Notice that the Challenger report will be released at 12:30 pm BST, while the jobless weekly claims release is going to be published 15 minutes after the ADP.

3:00 pm BST – US non-manufacturing ISM: Manufacturing ISM surprised expressly to the upside illustrating simmering upward momentum in paid prices, and a slightly slower pace of growth in terms of the employment sub-index. The non-manufacturing headline is expected to come in at 58.3 in June compared to 58.6 previously. As usual, traders are likely to zoom in on subindices for prices and employment.

3:30 pm BST – EIA release on oil stocks: US oil stockpiles are estimated to decrease 3.3 million barrels, and the number would be yet more bullish for oil compared with the calculations offered by the API on Tuesday. On top of that gasoline inventories should fall by 1 million barrels, and if so it could be an encouraging signal implying potentially higher demand for raw crude from refineries.

7:00 pm BST – FOMC minutes: Last but not least, the FOMC minutes might be eagerly watched by market participants given that the June’s meeting brought a lot of food for though for investors. Let us remind that the Federal Reserve decided to opt for four interest rate hikes this year instead of three estimated previously. In addition, the Fed decided that since 2019 onwards there will be a press conference following each meeting while macroeconomic projections will be still offered on a quarterly basis.

Central bank speakers for today:

  • 11:00 am BST – BoE’s Carney
  • 11:30 am BST – ECB’s Mersch, Nowotny, Nouy
  • 12:15 am BST – ECB’s Weidmann

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The EURUSD keeps rising after drawing a possible triple bottom pattern ahead of the FOMC minutes and some important releases from the US. Source: xStation5